基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-07T06:32:17Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 13 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 14 | 瑞士 | |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 17 | 日本 | |
| 18 | 美国 | |
| 19 | 墨西哥 | |
| 20 | 土耳其 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 23 | 奥地利 | |
| 24 | 韩国 | |
| 25 | 瑞典 | |
| 26 | 加拿大 | |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 28 | 埃及 | |
| 29 | 波黑 | |
| 30 | 伊朗 | |
| 31 | 苏格兰 | |
| 32 | 捷克 | |
| 33 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 34 | 加纳 | |
| 35 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 36 | 刚果(金) | |
| 37 | 突尼斯 | |
| 38 | 巴拿马 | |
| 39 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 40 | 约旦 | |
| 41 | 伊拉克 | |
| 42 | 新西兰 | |
| 43 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 44 | 南非 | |
| 45 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.37% | 72.14% | 51.68% | 38.70% | 25.46% | 16.19% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.28% | 70.14% | 47.30% | 32.86% | 20.91% | 12.69% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.06% | 69.08% | 47.55% | 30.10% | 18.74% | 10.83% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.93% | 63.29% | 45.82% | 30.40% | 17.82% | 10.15% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.76% | 62.72% | 39.84% | 24.05% | 13.28% | 7.15% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 96.94% | 62.16% | 38.28% | 22.11% | 12.60% | 6.81% |
| 7 | 德国 | 96.25% | 62.21% | 34.01% | 20.67% | 11.26% | 5.89% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.70% | 48.32% | 29.35% | 15.52% | 7.94% | 3.95% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.27% | 49.19% | 27.41% | 14.83% | 7.62% | 3.52% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.58% | 54.29% | 29.04% | 12.86% | 5.79% | 2.31% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 85.02% | 44.72% | 21.99% | 11.02% | 4.89% | 1.90% |
| 12 | 乌拉圭 | 83.66% | 38.86% | 20.63% | 10.18% | 4.34% | 1.78% |
| 13 | 摩洛哥 | 88.72% | 44.64% | 22.76% | 10.12% | 4.26% | 1.67% |
| 14 | 瑞士 | 90.61% | 53.13% | 24.63% | 10.22% | 4.20% | 1.58% |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.10% | 42.94% | 18.88% | 8.93% | 3.84% | 1.57% |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | 76.96% | 38.96% | 17.88% | 8.52% | 3.68% | 1.40% |
| 17 | 日本 | 76.54% | 34.31% | 17.34% | 7.78% | 3.36% | 1.31% |
| 18 | 美国 | 77.10% | 42.22% | 20.03% | 8.68% | 3.39% | 1.30% |
| 19 | 墨西哥 | 89.90% | 53.40% | 24.75% | 8.54% | 3.07% | 0.97% |
| 20 | 土耳其 | 73.17% | 38.25% | 17.23% | 6.92% | 2.65% | 0.96% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 61.88% | 29.84% | 13.69% | 5.74% | 2.29% | 0.88% |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | 63.76% | 30.12% | 11.83% | 4.52% | 1.56% | 0.56% |
| 23 | 奥地利 | 68.17% | 24.52% | 10.71% | 4.32% | 1.51% | 0.46% |
| 24 | 韩国 | 70.96% | 33.95% | 12.74% | 3.99% | 1.42% | 0.44% |
| 25 | 瑞典 | 63.02% | 23.32% | 10.08% | 3.90% | 1.46% | 0.44% |
| 26 | 加拿大 | 79.46% | 43.02% | 18.51% | 5.48% | 1.63% | 0.40% |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | 59.14% | 26.37% | 9.87% | 3.43% | 1.04% | 0.37% |
| 28 | 埃及 | 67.88% | 29.88% | 10.97% | 3.66% | 1.10% | 0.28% |
| 29 | 波黑 | 64.24% | 28.54% | 10.40% | 3.08% | 0.93% | 0.25% |
| 30 | 伊朗 | 64.88% | 27.71% | 9.65% | 3.16% | 0.97% | 0.25% |
| 31 | 苏格兰 | 66.84% | 24.28% | 8.76% | 2.76% | 0.90% | 0.24% |
| 32 | 捷克 | 63.65% | 28.62% | 10.25% | 2.87% | 0.85% | 0.23% |
| 33 | 科特迪瓦 | 63.86% | 23.40% | 7.68% | 2.58% | 0.73% | 0.20% |
| 34 | 加纳 | 49.64% | 18.28% | 6.52% | 2.30% | 0.78% | 0.19% |
| 35 | 阿尔及利亚 | 56.81% | 18.70% | 7.11% | 2.54% | 0.73% | 0.18% |
| 36 | 刚果(金) | 42.82% | 12.84% | 4.32% | 1.40% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 37 | 突尼斯 | 42.84% | 12.36% | 4.30% | 1.50% | 0.38% | 0.09% |
| 38 | 巴拿马 | 39.58% | 12.72% | 4.20% | 1.28% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 39 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.31% | 11.79% | 3.86% | 1.10% | 0.27% | 0.08% |
| 40 | 约旦 | 40.50% | 11.40% | 3.73% | 1.08% | 0.30% | 0.07% |
| 41 | 伊拉克 | 27.10% | 9.22% | 3.04% | 0.96% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 42 | 新西兰 | 47.84% | 16.57% | 4.68% | 1.24% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 43 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 39.73% | 11.59% | 3.57% | 1.04% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 44 | 南非 | 45.95% | 17.27% | 5.44% | 1.41% | 0.33% | 0.05% |
| 45 | 卡塔尔 | 35.61% | 12.78% | 3.94% | 0.88% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 33.36% | 8.96% | 2.52% | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 47 | 海地 | 15.68% | 2.75% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 19.56% | 4.24% | 0.76% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。