基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-03T06:32:07Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 14 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 15 | 瑞士 | |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 17 | 美国 | |
| 18 | 日本 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 23 | 瑞典 | |
| 24 | 奥地利 | |
| 25 | 加拿大 | |
| 26 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 27 | 韩国 | |
| 28 | 埃及 | |
| 29 | 捷克 | |
| 30 | 伊朗 | |
| 31 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 32 | 苏格兰 | |
| 33 | 加纳 | |
| 34 | 波黑 | |
| 35 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 南非 | |
| 39 | 伊拉克 | |
| 40 | 刚果(金) | |
| 41 | 新西兰 | |
| 42 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 43 | 约旦 | |
| 44 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 库拉索 | |
| 48 | 海地 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.34% | 72.24% | 51.60% | 38.70% | 25.33% | 16.23% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.11% | 70.06% | 47.72% | 33.03% | 20.94% | 12.84% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 95.91% | 68.57% | 47.20% | 29.76% | 18.52% | 10.92% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.84% | 63.07% | 45.57% | 30.38% | 17.82% | 10.12% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.89% | 62.72% | 40.52% | 24.43% | 13.69% | 7.18% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 96.91% | 61.47% | 37.49% | 21.64% | 11.94% | 6.35% |
| 7 | 德国 | 96.12% | 62.05% | 33.73% | 20.26% | 11.22% | 5.78% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.24% | 48.34% | 29.79% | 15.80% | 8.01% | 3.78% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.15% | 49.13% | 27.56% | 15.12% | 7.52% | 3.45% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.86% | 54.09% | 28.52% | 12.67% | 5.66% | 2.41% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 84.75% | 44.89% | 22.25% | 11.18% | 4.96% | 2.02% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 88.71% | 44.89% | 22.92% | 10.17% | 4.37% | 1.88% |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | 83.64% | 38.76% | 20.52% | 10.05% | 4.27% | 1.63% |
| 14 | 厄瓜多尔 | 86.92% | 42.85% | 18.92% | 8.96% | 3.96% | 1.54% |
| 15 | 瑞士 | 85.43% | 50.42% | 23.61% | 9.79% | 4.02% | 1.51% |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | 76.66% | 38.47% | 17.78% | 8.53% | 3.68% | 1.42% |
| 17 | 美国 | 77.03% | 41.59% | 19.36% | 8.10% | 3.33% | 1.41% |
| 18 | 日本 | 76.16% | 34.07% | 17.58% | 7.91% | 3.34% | 1.26% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 72.95% | 38.00% | 17.28% | 6.96% | 2.66% | 1.02% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 87.24% | 51.36% | 23.46% | 8.15% | 2.84% | 0.94% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 62.25% | 30.17% | 14.25% | 5.95% | 2.43% | 0.93% |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | 64.26% | 30.24% | 11.81% | 4.26% | 1.56% | 0.50% |
| 23 | 瑞典 | 62.64% | 22.97% | 9.73% | 3.75% | 1.36% | 0.50% |
| 24 | 奥地利 | 67.91% | 24.62% | 10.67% | 4.36% | 1.64% | 0.48% |
| 25 | 加拿大 | 79.78% | 43.52% | 18.80% | 5.76% | 1.71% | 0.42% |
| 26 | 澳大利亚 | 58.79% | 26.48% | 9.82% | 3.59% | 1.15% | 0.40% |
| 27 | 韩国 | 70.14% | 33.50% | 12.80% | 4.01% | 1.34% | 0.39% |
| 28 | 埃及 | 68.38% | 30.71% | 11.35% | 3.94% | 1.24% | 0.36% |
| 29 | 捷克 | 64.19% | 28.68% | 10.30% | 2.89% | 0.94% | 0.27% |
| 30 | 伊朗 | 64.64% | 27.62% | 9.88% | 3.24% | 1.02% | 0.25% |
| 31 | 阿尔及利亚 | 56.59% | 18.69% | 7.10% | 2.47% | 0.74% | 0.23% |
| 32 | 苏格兰 | 65.62% | 24.06% | 8.77% | 2.84% | 0.86% | 0.23% |
| 33 | 加纳 | 50.09% | 18.34% | 6.67% | 2.54% | 0.83% | 0.22% |
| 34 | 波黑 | 62.60% | 28.14% | 10.06% | 2.94% | 0.87% | 0.20% |
| 35 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.22% | 23.73% | 8.04% | 2.58% | 0.78% | 0.19% |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | 43.40% | 12.76% | 4.58% | 1.51% | 0.45% | 0.11% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 39.93% | 13.17% | 4.36% | 1.45% | 0.41% | 0.08% |
| 38 | 南非 | 48.90% | 18.78% | 5.92% | 1.44% | 0.34% | 0.08% |
| 39 | 伊拉克 | 27.50% | 9.15% | 3.10% | 0.99% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 40 | 刚果(金) | 42.74% | 13.00% | 3.92% | 1.24% | 0.35% | 0.07% |
| 41 | 新西兰 | 47.94% | 16.74% | 4.66% | 1.42% | 0.30% | 0.07% |
| 42 | 卡塔尔 | 43.48% | 16.16% | 4.89% | 1.21% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 约旦 | 40.86% | 11.34% | 3.71% | 1.02% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 44 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.19% | 12.34% | 4.04% | 1.18% | 0.36% | 0.05% |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 40.02% | 11.90% | 3.52% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 33.23% | 9.42% | 2.67% | 0.71% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 47 | 库拉索 | 19.04% | 3.89% | 0.76% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 48 | 海地 | 15.80% | 2.83% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。