基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-08T06:31:39Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 瑞士 | |
| 13 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 17 | 日本 | |
| 18 | 美国 | |
| 19 | 墨西哥 | |
| 20 | 土耳其 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 奥地利 | |
| 23 | 加拿大 | |
| 24 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 25 | 韩国 | |
| 26 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 27 | 瑞典 | |
| 28 | 埃及 | |
| 29 | 伊朗 | |
| 30 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 31 | 波黑 | |
| 32 | 苏格兰 | |
| 33 | 捷克 | |
| 34 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 35 | 加纳 | |
| 36 | 刚果(金) | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 突尼斯 | |
| 39 | 南非 | |
| 40 | 伊拉克 | |
| 41 | 约旦 | |
| 42 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 43 | 新西兰 | |
| 44 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.63% | 72.73% | 51.58% | 38.62% | 25.17% | 15.59% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.10% | 70.11% | 47.69% | 33.07% | 20.66% | 12.75% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.25% | 68.98% | 48.04% | 30.12% | 18.19% | 10.58% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.88% | 63.16% | 45.60% | 30.18% | 18.20% | 10.43% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.92% | 62.27% | 39.66% | 23.83% | 13.47% | 7.02% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 97.57% | 62.98% | 38.46% | 22.31% | 12.34% | 6.48% |
| 7 | 德国 | 96.40% | 62.22% | 33.39% | 20.28% | 11.24% | 6.06% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.19% | 48.46% | 29.61% | 15.58% | 7.88% | 3.93% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.95% | 49.40% | 27.05% | 14.43% | 7.13% | 3.31% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.78% | 53.94% | 28.13% | 12.52% | 5.73% | 2.55% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 85.00% | 45.49% | 22.71% | 11.65% | 5.27% | 2.28% |
| 12 | 瑞士 | 91.08% | 53.57% | 25.19% | 10.54% | 4.62% | 1.86% |
| 13 | 摩洛哥 | 87.56% | 44.06% | 22.88% | 10.17% | 4.44% | 1.81% |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | 83.93% | 39.07% | 20.49% | 10.23% | 4.35% | 1.75% |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.29% | 43.33% | 19.00% | 9.08% | 3.90% | 1.52% |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | 76.74% | 39.00% | 18.28% | 8.68% | 3.60% | 1.29% |
| 17 | 日本 | 76.42% | 33.26% | 16.78% | 7.52% | 3.22% | 1.26% |
| 18 | 美国 | 77.02% | 41.75% | 19.49% | 7.96% | 3.14% | 1.16% |
| 19 | 墨西哥 | 89.44% | 52.64% | 24.41% | 8.32% | 3.04% | 1.04% |
| 20 | 土耳其 | 73.68% | 37.93% | 17.13% | 6.98% | 2.79% | 0.95% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 62.44% | 30.04% | 13.93% | 6.04% | 2.39% | 0.91% |
| 22 | 奥地利 | 67.99% | 24.10% | 10.67% | 4.61% | 1.58% | 0.56% |
| 23 | 加拿大 | 79.54% | 43.45% | 19.40% | 5.95% | 1.79% | 0.50% |
| 24 | 巴拉圭 | 64.06% | 30.09% | 11.94% | 4.44% | 1.50% | 0.44% |
| 25 | 韩国 | 70.17% | 33.06% | 12.31% | 3.90% | 1.27% | 0.40% |
| 26 | 澳大利亚 | 58.59% | 25.98% | 9.61% | 3.46% | 1.16% | 0.38% |
| 27 | 瑞典 | 63.50% | 23.82% | 10.34% | 3.97% | 1.40% | 0.38% |
| 28 | 埃及 | 68.33% | 30.22% | 10.68% | 3.50% | 1.12% | 0.35% |
| 29 | 伊朗 | 64.74% | 27.49% | 9.88% | 3.02% | 0.91% | 0.29% |
| 30 | 阿尔及利亚 | 57.36% | 19.01% | 7.48% | 2.80% | 1.00% | 0.28% |
| 31 | 波黑 | 63.36% | 28.59% | 10.62% | 3.21% | 0.99% | 0.26% |
| 32 | 苏格兰 | 66.25% | 24.36% | 8.91% | 2.84% | 0.99% | 0.26% |
| 33 | 捷克 | 63.81% | 28.60% | 10.27% | 3.02% | 0.94% | 0.24% |
| 34 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.18% | 23.72% | 7.72% | 2.56% | 0.71% | 0.22% |
| 35 | 加纳 | 49.59% | 18.20% | 6.64% | 2.39% | 0.78% | 0.22% |
| 36 | 刚果(金) | 42.57% | 12.53% | 3.74% | 1.17% | 0.32% | 0.10% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 39.64% | 12.90% | 4.13% | 1.39% | 0.40% | 0.08% |
| 38 | 突尼斯 | 42.87% | 12.12% | 4.13% | 1.36% | 0.41% | 0.08% |
| 39 | 南非 | 46.74% | 17.92% | 5.64% | 1.30% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 40 | 伊拉克 | 27.23% | 8.90% | 2.80% | 0.78% | 0.22% | 0.07% |
| 41 | 约旦 | 40.71% | 11.28% | 3.82% | 1.22% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| 42 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.12% | 12.39% | 3.86% | 1.01% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 新西兰 | 46.93% | 16.07% | 4.60% | 1.17% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 44 | 卡塔尔 | 35.82% | 13.02% | 3.94% | 0.94% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 39.52% | 11.58% | 3.64% | 1.03% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 33.26% | 9.47% | 2.53% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 47 | 海地 | 15.58% | 2.98% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 19.28% | 3.79% | 0.68% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。