基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-04T06:32:11Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 瑞士 | |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 17 | 日本 | |
| 18 | 美国 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 奥地利 | |
| 23 | 加拿大 | |
| 24 | 瑞典 | |
| 25 | 韩国 | |
| 26 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 28 | 波黑 | |
| 29 | 埃及 | |
| 30 | 捷克 | |
| 31 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 32 | 伊朗 | |
| 33 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 34 | 加纳 | |
| 35 | 苏格兰 | |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 新西兰 | |
| 39 | 伊拉克 | |
| 40 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 41 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 42 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 43 | 刚果(金) | |
| 44 | 约旦 | |
| 45 | 佛得角 | |
| 46 | 南非 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.54% | 72.75% | 52.21% | 39.40% | 25.70% | 16.18% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.30% | 70.63% | 48.14% | 32.96% | 21.08% | 13.01% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.14% | 69.35% | 47.43% | 30.38% | 18.89% | 11.22% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.66% | 62.93% | 45.47% | 30.80% | 18.12% | 10.29% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.94% | 62.44% | 40.19% | 23.69% | 13.03% | 6.58% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 96.91% | 62.12% | 38.02% | 21.98% | 12.16% | 6.53% |
| 7 | 德国 | 96.51% | 62.18% | 34.00% | 20.48% | 11.06% | 5.72% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.65% | 48.90% | 30.14% | 15.59% | 7.89% | 3.99% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.30% | 49.01% | 27.62% | 14.75% | 7.29% | 3.33% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.62% | 54.00% | 28.88% | 12.85% | 5.74% | 2.37% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 84.93% | 45.14% | 22.21% | 11.22% | 4.92% | 2.05% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 89.05% | 44.89% | 23.36% | 10.32% | 4.43% | 1.68% |
| 13 | 瑞士 | 85.37% | 50.17% | 23.26% | 9.63% | 4.02% | 1.62% |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | 84.32% | 38.92% | 20.46% | 10.22% | 4.41% | 1.59% |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.26% | 43.58% | 18.95% | 8.94% | 3.87% | 1.54% |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | 76.91% | 38.20% | 18.12% | 8.61% | 3.68% | 1.40% |
| 17 | 日本 | 76.27% | 33.84% | 17.22% | 8.04% | 3.49% | 1.36% |
| 18 | 美国 | 76.77% | 41.65% | 19.59% | 8.34% | 3.40% | 1.32% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 73.51% | 38.95% | 17.80% | 7.20% | 2.96% | 1.06% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 87.71% | 51.62% | 23.71% | 8.06% | 2.88% | 0.97% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 61.96% | 29.23% | 13.47% | 5.64% | 2.33% | 0.85% |
| 22 | 奥地利 | 67.40% | 24.38% | 10.62% | 4.23% | 1.48% | 0.52% |
| 23 | 加拿大 | 79.68% | 42.72% | 18.52% | 5.70% | 1.68% | 0.51% |
| 24 | 瑞典 | 63.03% | 23.55% | 10.16% | 3.89% | 1.43% | 0.49% |
| 25 | 韩国 | 70.00% | 33.63% | 12.70% | 4.10% | 1.38% | 0.42% |
| 26 | 巴拉圭 | 64.25% | 30.31% | 11.79% | 4.46% | 1.41% | 0.38% |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | 58.47% | 26.24% | 9.73% | 3.40% | 1.07% | 0.34% |
| 28 | 波黑 | 63.35% | 28.25% | 10.20% | 3.11% | 0.93% | 0.29% |
| 29 | 埃及 | 68.22% | 30.05% | 10.88% | 3.51% | 1.05% | 0.28% |
| 30 | 捷克 | 63.87% | 28.76% | 10.00% | 2.75% | 0.90% | 0.27% |
| 31 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.35% | 23.87% | 7.71% | 2.53% | 0.77% | 0.24% |
| 32 | 伊朗 | 64.34% | 27.75% | 9.90% | 2.98% | 0.92% | 0.22% |
| 33 | 阿尔及利亚 | 57.11% | 18.72% | 7.07% | 2.49% | 0.83% | 0.20% |
| 34 | 加纳 | 49.48% | 18.18% | 6.46% | 2.30% | 0.66% | 0.18% |
| 35 | 苏格兰 | 66.17% | 23.67% | 8.42% | 2.82% | 0.90% | 0.18% |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | 42.74% | 12.53% | 4.37% | 1.44% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 39.95% | 13.14% | 4.30% | 1.35% | 0.38% | 0.10% |
| 38 | 新西兰 | 47.82% | 16.79% | 4.64% | 1.22% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 39 | 伊拉克 | 27.09% | 9.05% | 2.97% | 0.87% | 0.22% | 0.07% |
| 40 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.80% | 12.12% | 3.98% | 1.16% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 41 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 39.90% | 12.17% | 3.60% | 1.09% | 0.29% | 0.07% |
| 42 | 卡塔尔 | 42.62% | 15.27% | 4.53% | 1.06% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 刚果(金) | 42.27% | 12.72% | 4.21% | 1.24% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 44 | 约旦 | 40.89% | 11.34% | 3.60% | 1.08% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 45 | 佛得角 | 32.88% | 8.92% | 2.68% | 0.62% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| 46 | 南非 | 48.60% | 18.77% | 5.62% | 1.34% | 0.36% | 0.05% |
| 47 | 海地 | 15.40% | 2.74% | 0.47% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 18.68% | 3.86% | 0.66% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。