基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-10T06:32:15Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 14 | 瑞士 | |
| 15 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 16 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 17 | 美国 | |
| 18 | 日本 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 加拿大 | |
| 23 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 24 | 奥地利 | |
| 25 | 瑞典 | |
| 26 | 埃及 | |
| 27 | 韩国 | |
| 28 | 伊朗 | |
| 29 | 波黑 | |
| 30 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 31 | 苏格兰 | |
| 32 | 捷克 | |
| 33 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 34 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 35 | 加纳 | |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 南非 | |
| 39 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 40 | 约旦 | |
| 41 | 新西兰 | |
| 42 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 43 | 伊拉克 | |
| 44 | 刚果(金) | |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.46% | 72.57% | 51.67% | 38.93% | 25.06% | 15.98% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.30% | 70.71% | 47.73% | 33.14% | 20.90% | 12.88% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.04% | 68.50% | 47.66% | 30.23% | 18.49% | 10.84% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.83% | 62.22% | 45.14% | 29.86% | 17.71% | 10.05% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.71% | 63.27% | 40.78% | 24.30% | 13.23% | 7.08% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 97.58% | 61.84% | 38.18% | 21.86% | 12.35% | 6.60% |
| 7 | 德国 | 98.14% | 63.66% | 33.90% | 20.65% | 11.26% | 5.90% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 89.01% | 49.09% | 30.46% | 15.99% | 8.11% | 3.87% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.25% | 48.74% | 26.66% | 14.70% | 7.48% | 3.47% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.88% | 54.20% | 28.60% | 12.32% | 5.62% | 2.35% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 84.57% | 45.15% | 22.26% | 11.02% | 4.85% | 2.10% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 87.55% | 44.36% | 23.11% | 10.36% | 4.77% | 1.85% |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | 85.97% | 40.00% | 20.93% | 10.30% | 4.55% | 1.70% |
| 14 | 瑞士 | 91.52% | 53.81% | 25.01% | 10.47% | 4.44% | 1.67% |
| 15 | 克罗地亚 | 77.13% | 39.54% | 18.46% | 8.85% | 3.92% | 1.52% |
| 16 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.76% | 43.13% | 18.50% | 8.60% | 3.66% | 1.48% |
| 17 | 美国 | 77.12% | 42.05% | 19.30% | 8.30% | 3.39% | 1.30% |
| 18 | 日本 | 75.42% | 33.23% | 16.83% | 7.39% | 3.14% | 1.18% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 78.56% | 41.24% | 18.47% | 7.50% | 2.88% | 1.10% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 90.06% | 53.66% | 24.70% | 8.40% | 2.92% | 0.92% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 61.49% | 29.23% | 13.19% | 5.76% | 2.23% | 0.85% |
| 22 | 加拿大 | 80.51% | 43.47% | 18.99% | 5.70% | 1.91% | 0.56% |
| 23 | 巴拉圭 | 64.18% | 30.02% | 11.81% | 4.51% | 1.61% | 0.52% |
| 24 | 奥地利 | 67.95% | 24.50% | 10.62% | 4.58% | 1.62% | 0.48% |
| 25 | 瑞典 | 63.45% | 23.42% | 10.19% | 3.96% | 1.41% | 0.42% |
| 26 | 埃及 | 68.36% | 30.21% | 11.04% | 3.67% | 1.14% | 0.40% |
| 27 | 韩国 | 69.97% | 32.92% | 12.63% | 3.92% | 1.30% | 0.37% |
| 28 | 伊朗 | 70.14% | 29.80% | 10.35% | 3.31% | 0.97% | 0.29% |
| 29 | 波黑 | 63.93% | 28.86% | 10.61% | 3.08% | 0.89% | 0.27% |
| 30 | 澳大利亚 | 53.47% | 23.38% | 8.66% | 2.98% | 0.89% | 0.26% |
| 31 | 苏格兰 | 65.15% | 23.12% | 8.60% | 2.78% | 0.88% | 0.26% |
| 32 | 捷克 | 64.33% | 27.95% | 9.94% | 2.80% | 0.79% | 0.22% |
| 33 | 阿尔及利亚 | 56.99% | 18.47% | 7.22% | 2.59% | 0.83% | 0.20% |
| 34 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.52% | 23.50% | 7.56% | 2.48% | 0.79% | 0.19% |
| 35 | 加纳 | 50.01% | 18.16% | 6.48% | 2.42% | 0.71% | 0.19% |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | 43.26% | 12.63% | 4.54% | 1.34% | 0.37% | 0.12% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 40.43% | 13.08% | 4.18% | 1.43% | 0.43% | 0.10% |
| 38 | 南非 | 46.35% | 17.56% | 5.69% | 1.44% | 0.40% | 0.08% |
| 39 | 卡塔尔 | 34.41% | 12.78% | 3.82% | 0.89% | 0.22% | 0.06% |
| 40 | 约旦 | 40.83% | 11.28% | 3.41% | 0.97% | 0.30% | 0.06% |
| 41 | 新西兰 | 42.44% | 14.76% | 4.26% | 1.09% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| 42 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.58% | 12.06% | 3.90% | 1.17% | 0.31% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 伊拉克 | 27.34% | 9.08% | 3.01% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 44 | 刚果(金) | 42.79% | 12.52% | 3.82% | 1.32% | 0.37% | 0.04% |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 36.29% | 10.98% | 3.47% | 1.04% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 34.04% | 9.30% | 2.55% | 0.57% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| 47 | 海地 | 16.75% | 2.89% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 15.18% | 3.09% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。