基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-11T21:06:48Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 瑞士 | |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 16 | 美国 | |
| 17 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 18 | 日本 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 奥地利 | |
| 23 | 瑞典 | |
| 24 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 25 | 韩国 | |
| 26 | 加拿大 | |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 28 | 捷克 | |
| 29 | 埃及 | |
| 30 | 波黑 | |
| 31 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 32 | 伊朗 | |
| 33 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 34 | 苏格兰 | |
| 35 | 加纳 | |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 刚果(金) | |
| 39 | 伊拉克 | |
| 40 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 41 | 新西兰 | |
| 42 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 43 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 44 | 南非 | |
| 45 | 约旦 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.94% | 72.61% | 51.67% | 38.52% | 24.90% | 15.63% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.61% | 71.02% | 48.37% | 33.79% | 21.61% | 13.34% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 95.83% | 68.29% | 46.41% | 28.76% | 17.55% | 10.16% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.79% | 62.63% | 44.70% | 29.60% | 17.18% | 9.73% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 95.42% | 64.50% | 42.00% | 25.84% | 14.71% | 7.94% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 97.32% | 62.09% | 37.81% | 22.13% | 12.54% | 6.53% |
| 7 | 德国 | 97.84% | 63.96% | 34.45% | 21.85% | 11.94% | 6.32% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 89.17% | 49.29% | 30.47% | 15.92% | 8.18% | 4.12% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 87.42% | 51.90% | 28.55% | 15.62% | 7.59% | 3.50% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.67% | 54.38% | 29.08% | 12.97% | 5.87% | 2.32% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 84.78% | 44.48% | 21.46% | 10.54% | 4.85% | 1.91% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 87.07% | 43.57% | 22.53% | 10.10% | 4.38% | 1.77% |
| 13 | 瑞士 | 90.88% | 53.04% | 24.57% | 10.09% | 4.18% | 1.64% |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | 85.54% | 38.46% | 19.94% | 9.57% | 4.08% | 1.48% |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.19% | 42.70% | 18.44% | 8.28% | 3.57% | 1.43% |
| 16 | 美国 | 77.28% | 41.58% | 19.73% | 8.30% | 3.41% | 1.28% |
| 17 | 克罗地亚 | 77.58% | 39.08% | 17.91% | 8.33% | 3.38% | 1.27% |
| 18 | 日本 | 75.51% | 33.02% | 16.38% | 7.10% | 2.82% | 1.12% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 78.94% | 41.54% | 18.72% | 7.40% | 2.95% | 1.09% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 98.30% | 58.41% | 26.22% | 9.01% | 3.22% | 1.01% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 62.32% | 29.08% | 13.27% | 5.72% | 2.24% | 0.86% |
| 22 | 奥地利 | 80.42% | 29.18% | 12.73% | 5.22% | 1.86% | 0.59% |
| 23 | 瑞典 | 66.81% | 24.55% | 10.66% | 4.12% | 1.54% | 0.52% |
| 24 | 巴拉圭 | 63.67% | 29.28% | 11.87% | 4.33% | 1.54% | 0.50% |
| 25 | 韩国 | 70.98% | 32.88% | 12.59% | 3.95% | 1.43% | 0.42% |
| 26 | 加拿大 | 82.58% | 44.30% | 19.22% | 5.58% | 1.60% | 0.42% |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | 53.45% | 22.94% | 8.50% | 3.13% | 1.06% | 0.35% |
| 28 | 捷克 | 74.11% | 32.95% | 11.69% | 3.40% | 1.03% | 0.34% |
| 29 | 埃及 | 68.72% | 30.21% | 11.00% | 3.54% | 1.06% | 0.32% |
| 30 | 波黑 | 60.84% | 26.81% | 9.73% | 2.90% | 0.88% | 0.27% |
| 31 | 阿尔及利亚 | 57.95% | 19.17% | 7.44% | 2.59% | 0.75% | 0.27% |
| 32 | 伊朗 | 70.22% | 30.03% | 10.23% | 3.33% | 0.95% | 0.24% |
| 33 | 科特迪瓦 | 63.74% | 22.79% | 7.66% | 2.55% | 0.75% | 0.21% |
| 34 | 苏格兰 | 64.54% | 22.62% | 8.11% | 2.60% | 0.84% | 0.21% |
| 35 | 加纳 | 50.12% | 18.46% | 6.50% | 2.34% | 0.70% | 0.19% |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | 39.48% | 11.82% | 4.19% | 1.40% | 0.44% | 0.13% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 40.07% | 12.69% | 4.17% | 1.29% | 0.37% | 0.08% |
| 38 | 刚果(金) | 41.86% | 12.46% | 3.91% | 1.17% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 39 | 伊拉克 | 21.82% | 6.88% | 2.30% | 0.63% | 0.16% | 0.06% |
| 40 | 卡塔尔 | 36.32% | 13.05% | 3.86% | 0.96% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 41 | 新西兰 | 42.20% | 14.86% | 4.19% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| 42 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.38% | 12.17% | 3.59% | 1.00% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 37.92% | 11.26% | 3.71% | 1.12% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 44 | 南非 | 25.43% | 9.33% | 3.15% | 0.74% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 45 | 约旦 | 29.34% | 8.37% | 2.56% | 0.77% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 32.08% | 8.73% | 2.48% | 0.58% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 47 | 海地 | 18.30% | 3.26% | 0.61% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 16.24% | 3.32% | 0.65% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。