基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-05T06:32:10Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 14 | 瑞士 | |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 17 | 日本 | |
| 18 | 美国 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 瑞典 | |
| 23 | 奥地利 | |
| 24 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 25 | 加拿大 | |
| 26 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 27 | 埃及 | |
| 28 | 韩国 | |
| 29 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 30 | 波黑 | |
| 31 | 伊朗 | |
| 32 | 苏格兰 | |
| 33 | 捷克 | |
| 34 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 35 | 加纳 | |
| 36 | 南非 | |
| 37 | 突尼斯 | |
| 38 | 刚果(金) | |
| 39 | 巴拿马 | |
| 40 | 伊拉克 | |
| 41 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 42 | 约旦 | |
| 43 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 44 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 45 | 新西兰 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.56% | 72.66% | 52.63% | 39.63% | 26.07% | 16.45% |
| 2 | 法国 | 94.88% | 70.49% | 48.07% | 33.51% | 20.97% | 12.78% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.21% | 68.97% | 48.02% | 30.61% | 18.90% | 11.35% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.90% | 63.23% | 45.70% | 30.64% | 18.25% | 10.36% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.81% | 62.38% | 39.73% | 23.61% | 13.08% | 6.94% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 96.93% | 62.08% | 37.99% | 22.12% | 12.48% | 6.70% |
| 7 | 德国 | 96.30% | 61.73% | 33.63% | 20.67% | 11.03% | 5.65% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.30% | 47.83% | 29.32% | 15.44% | 7.66% | 3.71% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.30% | 48.52% | 26.94% | 14.51% | 7.30% | 3.22% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.61% | 54.14% | 28.28% | 12.64% | 5.79% | 2.40% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 84.89% | 44.81% | 22.42% | 11.46% | 5.16% | 2.19% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 89.09% | 45.26% | 23.35% | 10.26% | 4.56% | 1.85% |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | 83.92% | 38.59% | 20.17% | 9.80% | 4.22% | 1.58% |
| 14 | 瑞士 | 85.63% | 50.54% | 23.66% | 9.42% | 3.89% | 1.46% |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.26% | 43.47% | 18.93% | 9.09% | 3.76% | 1.46% |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | 77.02% | 38.93% | 17.98% | 8.58% | 3.77% | 1.45% |
| 17 | 日本 | 76.13% | 34.20% | 17.54% | 7.67% | 3.26% | 1.36% |
| 18 | 美国 | 76.88% | 41.73% | 19.30% | 7.92% | 3.13% | 1.12% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 73.06% | 37.95% | 16.70% | 6.75% | 2.70% | 0.98% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 87.78% | 52.08% | 23.76% | 8.28% | 2.88% | 0.94% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 61.52% | 28.90% | 13.49% | 5.47% | 2.14% | 0.72% |
| 22 | 瑞典 | 63.31% | 23.61% | 10.03% | 3.96% | 1.51% | 0.52% |
| 23 | 奥地利 | 67.51% | 24.85% | 10.60% | 4.46% | 1.55% | 0.51% |
| 24 | 巴拉圭 | 64.00% | 29.88% | 11.94% | 4.40% | 1.50% | 0.47% |
| 25 | 加拿大 | 79.58% | 43.75% | 19.34% | 5.74% | 1.59% | 0.40% |
| 26 | 澳大利亚 | 59.12% | 26.12% | 9.82% | 3.63% | 1.26% | 0.38% |
| 27 | 埃及 | 68.21% | 31.04% | 11.18% | 3.88% | 1.32% | 0.31% |
| 28 | 韩国 | 70.04% | 33.79% | 12.67% | 3.80% | 1.23% | 0.30% |
| 29 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.29% | 24.15% | 7.88% | 2.54% | 0.84% | 0.27% |
| 30 | 波黑 | 63.24% | 28.23% | 10.32% | 3.06% | 0.90% | 0.27% |
| 31 | 伊朗 | 64.20% | 27.21% | 9.52% | 3.14% | 0.89% | 0.27% |
| 32 | 苏格兰 | 66.38% | 24.36% | 8.90% | 2.89% | 0.86% | 0.26% |
| 33 | 捷克 | 64.00% | 28.16% | 10.20% | 2.88% | 0.80% | 0.22% |
| 34 | 阿尔及利亚 | 56.92% | 18.62% | 7.03% | 2.61% | 0.80% | 0.20% |
| 35 | 加纳 | 49.51% | 18.12% | 6.55% | 2.40% | 0.66% | 0.20% |
| 36 | 南非 | 49.11% | 18.93% | 5.94% | 1.52% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 37 | 突尼斯 | 43.22% | 12.16% | 4.48% | 1.34% | 0.41% | 0.10% |
| 38 | 刚果(金) | 42.82% | 12.92% | 4.12% | 1.22% | 0.33% | 0.09% |
| 39 | 巴拿马 | 39.70% | 13.25% | 4.20% | 1.38% | 0.36% | 0.08% |
| 40 | 伊拉克 | 27.67% | 9.29% | 3.14% | 0.90% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 41 | 卡塔尔 | 42.85% | 15.74% | 4.80% | 1.05% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 42 | 约旦 | 40.69% | 11.38% | 3.76% | 1.06% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 43 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 40.70% | 11.98% | 3.82% | 1.08% | 0.26% | 0.05% |
| 44 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 40.00% | 11.48% | 3.55% | 0.92% | 0.28% | 0.05% |
| 45 | 新西兰 | 47.82% | 16.74% | 4.73% | 1.22% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 33.18% | 9.02% | 2.50% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 47 | 海地 | 15.30% | 2.79% | 0.52% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 18.65% | 3.94% | 0.84% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。