基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-09T12:12:51Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 瑞士 | |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 17 | 日本 | |
| 18 | 美国 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 23 | 加拿大 | |
| 24 | 瑞典 | |
| 25 | 奥地利 | |
| 26 | 韩国 | |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 28 | 埃及 | |
| 29 | 捷克 | |
| 30 | 波黑 | |
| 31 | 苏格兰 | |
| 32 | 伊朗 | |
| 33 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 34 | 加纳 | |
| 35 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 36 | 刚果(金) | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 突尼斯 | |
| 39 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 40 | 新西兰 | |
| 41 | 伊拉克 | |
| 42 | 约旦 | |
| 43 | 南非 | |
| 44 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 46 | 佛得角 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.50% | 72.19% | 51.62% | 38.56% | 25.01% | 15.92% |
| 2 | 法国 | 95.30% | 70.50% | 47.79% | 33.46% | 21.11% | 13.19% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.25% | 69.32% | 47.78% | 30.54% | 18.87% | 10.86% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.91% | 63.14% | 45.84% | 30.72% | 18.43% | 10.47% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 95.01% | 62.39% | 39.86% | 23.62% | 13.12% | 6.99% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 97.56% | 62.09% | 37.67% | 21.82% | 12.26% | 6.43% |
| 7 | 德国 | 98.10% | 63.56% | 34.10% | 21.10% | 11.50% | 5.94% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.75% | 48.47% | 29.96% | 15.44% | 7.84% | 3.75% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.52% | 48.90% | 26.92% | 14.59% | 7.20% | 3.50% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.39% | 53.98% | 28.35% | 12.57% | 5.39% | 2.26% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 85.11% | 44.78% | 22.08% | 10.95% | 4.71% | 1.85% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 87.10% | 44.20% | 23.24% | 10.32% | 4.48% | 1.83% |
| 13 | 瑞士 | 91.12% | 53.16% | 25.08% | 10.50% | 4.36% | 1.65% |
| 14 | 乌拉圭 | 86.10% | 39.66% | 20.74% | 10.38% | 4.24% | 1.61% |
| 15 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.66% | 42.75% | 18.54% | 8.76% | 3.66% | 1.45% |
| 16 | 克罗地亚 | 77.54% | 39.52% | 18.67% | 8.78% | 3.82% | 1.44% |
| 17 | 日本 | 76.21% | 33.76% | 17.56% | 7.74% | 3.45% | 1.30% |
| 18 | 美国 | 76.93% | 41.72% | 18.80% | 7.96% | 3.18% | 1.21% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 78.68% | 41.62% | 18.90% | 7.76% | 3.04% | 1.14% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 89.64% | 53.09% | 24.49% | 8.52% | 3.04% | 0.98% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 62.52% | 30.23% | 13.80% | 5.65% | 2.29% | 0.84% |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | 63.79% | 29.84% | 11.80% | 4.40% | 1.59% | 0.53% |
| 23 | 加拿大 | 79.92% | 43.54% | 18.99% | 5.78% | 1.83% | 0.52% |
| 24 | 瑞典 | 63.62% | 23.48% | 10.41% | 3.87% | 1.48% | 0.50% |
| 25 | 奥地利 | 67.22% | 24.07% | 10.67% | 4.33% | 1.51% | 0.43% |
| 26 | 韩国 | 70.62% | 33.72% | 12.53% | 4.05% | 1.34% | 0.40% |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | 54.08% | 23.24% | 8.36% | 3.09% | 1.07% | 0.35% |
| 28 | 埃及 | 68.89% | 30.69% | 11.30% | 3.72% | 1.22% | 0.34% |
| 29 | 捷克 | 63.69% | 28.25% | 9.86% | 2.79% | 0.94% | 0.25% |
| 30 | 波黑 | 63.05% | 27.97% | 10.69% | 3.10% | 0.93% | 0.25% |
| 31 | 苏格兰 | 66.70% | 24.43% | 8.83% | 2.76% | 0.81% | 0.25% |
| 32 | 伊朗 | 64.45% | 27.48% | 9.26% | 2.93% | 0.92% | 0.24% |
| 33 | 阿尔及利亚 | 57.72% | 18.92% | 7.31% | 2.62% | 0.80% | 0.23% |
| 34 | 加纳 | 49.65% | 18.19% | 6.51% | 2.25% | 0.70% | 0.22% |
| 35 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.64% | 23.82% | 7.60% | 2.44% | 0.66% | 0.16% |
| 36 | 刚果(金) | 42.68% | 12.78% | 4.12% | 1.27% | 0.38% | 0.12% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 40.12% | 12.87% | 4.16% | 1.28% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 38 | 突尼斯 | 42.78% | 12.43% | 4.39% | 1.35% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 39 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 40.98% | 11.91% | 3.74% | 1.28% | 0.35% | 0.08% |
| 40 | 新西兰 | 47.56% | 16.64% | 4.60% | 1.13% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 41 | 伊拉克 | 27.18% | 8.98% | 2.94% | 0.77% | 0.18% | 0.06% |
| 42 | 约旦 | 40.59% | 11.43% | 3.77% | 1.10% | 0.31% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 南非 | 46.54% | 17.48% | 5.58% | 1.40% | 0.41% | 0.06% |
| 44 | 卡塔尔 | 35.98% | 13.07% | 3.86% | 0.86% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 45 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 37.14% | 10.95% | 3.45% | 0.96% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 46 | 佛得角 | 32.84% | 8.94% | 2.34% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 47 | 海地 | 15.46% | 2.79% | 0.54% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 15.20% | 3.06% | 0.63% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。