基于 Opta Analyst 超级计算机模拟数据
数据更新于：2026-06-06T06:32:15Z
| # | 球队 | 夺冠概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | |
| 2 | 法国 | |
| 3 | 英格兰 | |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | |
| 6 | 巴西 | |
| 7 | 德国 | |
| 8 | 荷兰 | |
| 9 | 挪威 | |
| 10 | 比利时 | |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | |
| 14 | 厄瓜多尔 | |
| 15 | 克罗地亚 | |
| 16 | 瑞士 | |
| 17 | 日本 | |
| 18 | 美国 | |
| 19 | 土耳其 | |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | |
| 23 | 奥地利 | |
| 24 | 瑞典 | |
| 25 | 加拿大 | |
| 26 | 韩国 | |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | |
| 28 | 埃及 | |
| 29 | 捷克 | |
| 30 | 波黑 | |
| 31 | 阿尔及利亚 | |
| 32 | 加纳 | |
| 33 | 苏格兰 | |
| 34 | 科特迪瓦 | |
| 35 | 伊朗 | |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | |
| 38 | 刚果(金) | |
| 39 | 新西兰 | |
| 40 | 伊拉克 | |
| 41 | 卡塔尔 | |
| 42 | 南非 | |
| 43 | 沙特阿拉伯 | |
| 44 | 佛得角 | |
| 45 | 约旦 | |
| 46 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | |
| 47 | 海地 | |
| 48 | 库拉索 |
| 排名 | 球队 | 32强 | 16强 | 八强 | 四强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 98.49% | 72.20% | 51.41% | 38.78% | 25.47% | 16.04% |
| 2 | 法国 | 94.76% | 69.75% | 47.30% | 33.22% | 20.89% | 12.76% |
| 3 | 英格兰 | 96.15% | 68.72% | 47.51% | 30.40% | 18.99% | 11.36% |
| 4 | 阿根廷 | 96.99% | 63.43% | 45.71% | 30.64% | 18.20% | 10.35% |
| 5 | 葡萄牙 | 94.90% | 62.27% | 39.78% | 23.61% | 13.05% | 6.82% |
| 6 | 巴西 | 96.87% | 61.60% | 38.17% | 21.98% | 12.23% | 6.45% |
| 7 | 德国 | 96.36% | 61.17% | 33.36% | 19.93% | 10.77% | 5.43% |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 88.62% | 48.90% | 30.41% | 15.94% | 8.02% | 3.80% |
| 9 | 挪威 | 82.45% | 49.11% | 27.13% | 14.44% | 7.28% | 3.36% |
| 10 | 比利时 | 89.72% | 53.93% | 28.73% | 12.79% | 5.74% | 2.46% |
| 11 | 哥伦比亚 | 84.91% | 45.55% | 22.90% | 11.48% | 4.94% | 2.03% |
| 12 | 摩洛哥 | 88.75% | 44.94% | 23.17% | 10.52% | 4.48% | 1.82% |
| 13 | 乌拉圭 | 83.83% | 38.84% | 20.52% | 10.08% | 4.44% | 1.66% |
| 14 | 厄瓜多尔 | 87.21% | 43.22% | 19.10% | 8.78% | 3.66% | 1.58% |
| 15 | 克罗地亚 | 77.21% | 39.37% | 18.02% | 8.96% | 3.91% | 1.50% |
| 16 | 瑞士 | 85.54% | 50.27% | 23.18% | 9.50% | 3.78% | 1.42% |
| 17 | 日本 | 76.41% | 33.85% | 17.48% | 7.77% | 3.25% | 1.40% |
| 18 | 美国 | 76.78% | 41.92% | 19.52% | 8.42% | 3.42% | 1.40% |
| 19 | 土耳其 | 73.76% | 38.87% | 17.61% | 7.41% | 2.83% | 1.03% |
| 20 | 墨西哥 | 89.65% | 53.04% | 24.24% | 8.56% | 3.01% | 0.96% |
| 21 | 塞内加尔 | 62.48% | 29.73% | 13.82% | 5.86% | 2.46% | 0.91% |
| 22 | 巴拉圭 | 63.73% | 30.33% | 11.77% | 4.31% | 1.62% | 0.53% |
| 23 | 奥地利 | 68.05% | 24.90% | 10.96% | 4.55% | 1.60% | 0.53% |
| 24 | 瑞典 | 63.08% | 23.05% | 9.88% | 3.84% | 1.38% | 0.47% |
| 25 | 加拿大 | 79.49% | 42.80% | 19.02% | 5.84% | 1.76% | 0.44% |
| 26 | 韩国 | 70.22% | 33.57% | 12.30% | 3.77% | 1.17% | 0.39% |
| 27 | 澳大利亚 | 58.67% | 26.40% | 9.98% | 3.33% | 1.24% | 0.38% |
| 28 | 埃及 | 68.25% | 30.41% | 11.00% | 3.66% | 1.14% | 0.33% |
| 29 | 捷克 | 63.96% | 28.65% | 10.41% | 2.95% | 0.88% | 0.30% |
| 30 | 波黑 | 63.18% | 28.79% | 10.63% | 3.09% | 0.94% | 0.24% |
| 31 | 阿尔及利亚 | 57.08% | 18.83% | 7.11% | 2.66% | 0.94% | 0.24% |
| 32 | 加纳 | 49.00% | 17.55% | 6.46% | 2.30% | 0.78% | 0.23% |
| 33 | 苏格兰 | 65.98% | 24.15% | 8.80% | 2.89% | 0.88% | 0.23% |
| 34 | 科特迪瓦 | 64.18% | 23.58% | 7.76% | 2.33% | 0.71% | 0.20% |
| 35 | 伊朗 | 64.13% | 27.28% | 9.31% | 3.03% | 0.86% | 0.20% |
| 36 | 突尼斯 | 42.63% | 12.45% | 4.28% | 1.38% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 37 | 巴拿马 | 40.08% | 13.03% | 4.29% | 1.40% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| 38 | 刚果(金) | 42.38% | 12.75% | 3.98% | 1.23% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 39 | 新西兰 | 47.68% | 17.01% | 4.94% | 1.25% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 40 | 伊拉克 | 26.96% | 8.90% | 2.86% | 0.79% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 41 | 卡塔尔 | 43.14% | 15.55% | 4.79% | 1.06% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 42 | 南非 | 46.64% | 18.02% | 5.58% | 1.29% | 0.37% | 0.06% |
| 43 | 沙特阿拉伯 | 39.96% | 11.85% | 3.61% | 0.96% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 44 | 佛得角 | 33.14% | 9.22% | 2.67% | 0.71% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 45 | 约旦 | 40.82% | 11.46% | 3.81% | 1.05% | 0.29% | 0.04% |
| 46 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | 41.34% | 12.23% | 3.62% | 1.08% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
| 47 | 海地 | 15.69% | 2.79% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | 库拉索 | 18.71% | 3.74% | 0.63% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
基于各组最可能出线球队预测的对阵路径。每个对阵框上下两队，概率高者标黄为预测晋级方。
32强对阵遵循 FIFA 2026 官方抽签分区规则，实际对阵将在小组赛结束后确定。